Construction hiring gap could top 100,000 in Ontario: BuildForce

Ontario Construction News staff writer

Expected retirements and growth will put significant pressure on the construction labour market over the next 10 years, according to the 2023–2032 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward report published by BuildForce Canada Apr. 25.

The report finds that labour markets for many of Ontario’s construction trades and occupations were strained at the end of 2022. Despite rising interest rates, activity in the residential sector remained strong, spurred by high levels of migration into the province and high levels of renovation activity. Meanwhile, the province’s non-residential sector continues to be buoyed by a long list of major projects in nearly every region.

Looking across the 10-year forecast period, activity in the province’s residential sector will be influenced by several key variables. Rising interest rates are expected to contract the province’s new-housing construction sector in 2023 and 2024 while overall residential activity will be supported by a renovation and maintenance sector that is expected to grow continuously through 2032.

“Ontario’s construction and maintenance sector is poised for a number of years of strong growth,” BuildForce Canada executive director Bill Ferreira said in a statement. “Its challenge will be working within already-taxed labour markets.

“A number of older workers who exited the labour market during the COVID-19 pandemic have been slow to return. This fact, combined with steady employment gains, has pushed construction-sector unemployment rates to record-low levels. The situation is further complicated by the loss of skills and experience created by the departure of these older workers, and which cannot easily be replaced by new hires.”

Meanwhile, the province’s non-residential sector is projected to grow across the forecast period, as major projects in every region drive demands higher. Employment is expected to reach a peak of 16% above 2022 levels in 2027 as work culminates on many major projects. Key projects include light-rail transit and subway projects in major urban centres, ongoing nuclear refurbishments at Bruce Power and Ontario Power Generation, and major health-sector and other institutional projects across all regions.

The outlook for the complete forecast period sees construction and maintenance employment rising to a peak in 2028, by which time it will have increased by nearly 8 per cent above 2022 levels.

These numbers are based on existing known demands and do not take into account the federal government’s goal to double the number of new homes built across Canada over the next 10 years, nor the anticipated increase in demand for construction services related to the retrofit of existing residential, industrial, commercial, and institutional buildings to accommodate the electrification of the economy.

Central Ontario has seen its construction sector bolstered in part by a significant outflow of residents from the Greater Toronto Area in recent years. The local housing market is expected to contract in 2023 due to rising interest rates, but growth is expected again by 2025. Non-residential employment will be sustained by a combination of major engineering-construction projects, many of them in the Hamilton area. Total construction employment is anticipated to add 1% over 2022 levels, with increases exclusive to the non-residential sector.

Eastern Ontario reported some of the tightest labour markets in the province in 2022, with most trades and occupations strained. Although recruiting challenges are expected to ease in the residential sector in the near term, the outlook for the non-residential sector suggests challenges could remain through 2027 and 2028. The regional market is benefiting from a series of high-value public-sector projects, including the second phase of Ottawa’s light rail line, the redevelopment of Parliament Hill’s Centre Block, and the refurbishment and construction of several other federal buildings. New hospital projects in Ottawa and Kingston add to market demands in later years. Overall employment rises to a peak in 2027 and moderates thereafter.

The Greater Toronto Area’s construction market is underpinned by a series of large-scale public transportation, nuclear refurbishment, new hospital, and other government building restoration projects that bring non-residential employment to a peak in 2027. Overall construction employment grows by 27,200 workers (+16%) over 2022 levels by 2032.

The construction market in Northern Ontario is heavily influenced by activity in the mining and utility sectors. With both expected to report strong gains in 2023, and with work on the Thunder Bay correctional facility and the Weeneebayko hospital scheduled to begin in later forecast years, non-residential employment should be sustained at elevated levels through at least 2027. The outlook for the residential sector follows a similar trend.

Southwestern Ontario has been supported by a strong housing market, also driven by out-migration from the Greater Toronto Area. After a brief decline in 2022, the regional residential market should rise to peak employment by 2027 before receding in later years. The local non-residential sector, meanwhile, begins the forecast period operating at elevated levels, with ongoing work on the Bruce Power nuclear refurbishment, the Gordie Howe bridge, new battery manufacturing and auto retooling investments, and a significant rise in industrial shutdown/turnaround maintenance work in Sarnia. The proposed start of the Windsor acute care hospital in 2026 adds to employment later in the period. By 2032, Southwestern Ontario’s construction sector is expected to contract modestly from elevated 2022 levels.

Based on the current pace of new apprenticeship registrations and completion trends, several trades may be at risk of undersupplying the number of new journeypersons required by 2032.  They include Bricklayer, Carpenter, Construction Craft Worker, Floor Covering Installer, Glazier, Heavy-Duty Equipment Operator, Industrial Instrumentation Technician, Insulator (heat and frost), Mobile Crane Operator, Painter and Decorator, Roofer, Tractor Trailer Driver, and Welder.

Increasing the participation rate of women, indigenous people, and new Canadians could help Ontario’s construction industry address its future labour force needs.

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